How A Minha Terra’s 2026 susceptibility map is made.

01 · The mapA view of fire probability, freguesia by freguesia, for 2026.

The 2026 susceptibility map is a new view of where fire is most likely to spread this year, across every freguesia in Portugal at 10-metre satellite resolution. It sits alongside the official structural classification published by ICNF, which gives the long-term baseline, and adds something complementary: a picture of what’s true on the ground right now.

The 2026 susceptibility map is built by LandOS, the Portuguese company behind A Minha Terra, in collaboration with MEJOR Technologies. At the heart of the map is the LUCI technology, which weaves together environmental data to predict where wildfires are most likely to break out. Landscape readings at 10-metre resolution combine vegetation, terrain, and recent burn history to rank where this year’s susceptibility concentrates. Together with MEJOR we are bringing this approach to Portugal for the 2026 fire season, and adapting the result so every Portuguese landowner can access it on this site.

02 · How susceptibility is calculatedThe susceptibility score. Variables and evidence.

Fire susceptibility does not rely on one single factor. For every 10 × 10 metre patch of Portugal, we combine six kinds of information that describe the same place from different angles, answering a few questions:

1. 01

   Land cover

   What kind of surface is present — forest, scrub, farmland, built-up area, or bare rock?

2. 02

   Vegetation greenness

   How green or dry does the vegetation look in recent satellite imagery, and how does that compare to what’s normal for that exact spot at this time of year?

3. 03

   Surface exposure

   Does the surface read as vegetated, or more bare and open?

4. 04

   Terrain

   What’s the slope, the elevation, and the direction the land faces? The shape of the ground.

5. 05

   Human presence

   What roads, buildings, and population sit nearby? Most ignitions happen close to where people are.

6. 06

   Recent burn history

   Where has fire already passed in recent years? After a burn, fuel takes time to grow back, and that pattern matters.

The map shows where fire is most likely to spread if the right conditions come together this season. It does not say a specific parcela will burn, or that any one is safe.

03 · Good to knowWhat the map shows, and what it does not.

The map gives a strong picture of where fire is most likely to spread in summer 2026. That said, a few things are worth keeping in mind as you read it, so you can put it to best use on your own land.

• Cloud cover

  Heavy cloud or shadow can hide parts of the land from the satellite. We fill in most affected areas, and the picture sharpens each time new clear imagery arrives.

• A seasonal view, not a live feed

  The vegetation layers reflect the most recent satellite window for this season, rather than a daily reading. They give a reliable picture of conditions heading into summer.

• Very recent work on the ground

  If you have recently cleared, harvested, or worked your land, that change may not appear yet. It will show up once fresh imagery is available.

• Small features

  Narrow fuel breaks, individual tracks, and small local actions can be smaller than the 10-metre grid. Your own knowledge of your land always adds detail the map cannot see.

• Weather and ignition

  The map shows where the landscape is most likely to carry fire. What actually happens during a fire also depends on weather and how it starts, which no map can know in advance.

The best way to use the map is as a guide to where attention may be most useful this season. It works best alongside your own knowledge of your land, ICNF’s structural classification, and local advice.